Methanol remain weak run
Time：2012-11-12 16:13:56 Hits：2338
1301 contract period since the late mid-September, the methanol price basically 2750-2850 yuan / ton range of oscillation, and volatility decreases gradually, volume and open interest remain low. Possible for the market outlook, although the continued repression of the price of the supply side, but demand is still growing, and the cost is also a slow recovery is expected to rebound after the 1301 contract price of methanol continuing weakness probability, investors in the 60-day moving average near the layout more than a single before the end of the year target price of 2900 yuan / ton.
Futures prices remain under pressure
With Qinghai Zhonghao 600,000 tons, Gansu Huating Xu 600,000 tons Po Tyrone (601,011) 100,000 tons of methanol plant gradually resume production, the overall methanol plant operation rate continued to rise.
New capacity in terms of the Xuzhou HuaYu Gas Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 15 million tons of new methanol plant project has been put into operation in the near future, Inner Mongolia Donghua Energy (002221), 60 million tons of new production of devices currently in the commissioning of 600,000 tons, Inner Mongolia Jinchengtai Chemical The methanol plant 60 million tons of coal and elm days planned commissioning test in November. Therefore, the market outlook, the methanol supply pressure will continue to increase, which will suppress the methanol futures prices.
Port stocks recovery
Pre Iran for the supply decreases, resulting in China's methanol imports continued to decline, the port stocks declined. As of November 8, East China methanol stock has dropped to 39.3 million tons, the South China dropped to 10.2 million tons, the overall inventory at a low level since 2011. However, from the known sailing point of view, the market outlook to Hong Kong to increase the possibility of, from early November to 17 November, the total supply of 5.5 million tons of methanol to reach the East China port, 20,000 tons in southern China into Hong Kong. The possibility of recovery of the market outlook port supply.
Demand growth points will transfer to the methanol to olefins
Methanol traditional demand continues to slump situation will continue. Formaldehyde side, as of November 8, formaldehyde operation rate has steadily climbed back to 61.4%, the highest level this year, but below the level of the same period last year, and sales of goods is still not improved, the market outlook formaldehyde methanol demand growth will be limited.
Dimethyl ether, the weather turns cold, liquefied gas sales atmosphere has warmed up, stimulating the demand of dimethyl ether. Recent dimethyl ether Quotes fair, Chongqing Wansheng, Hubei Sanning Chemical, Puyang Longyu production is gradually being restored, but overall demand remains weak, difficult to show significant growth.
Outlook methanol demand growth points will transfer to the methanol to olefins, and its production is mainly concentrated in the northwest and north China. According to statistics, in October, the methanol to olefins production was 12.8 million tons, consumption of methanol is about 35 million tons, accounting for 13.8% of the total methanol consumption. Currently, the the Ningxia Coal and Datang device run is less stable and Ningbo Wo $ 600,000 t / year of methanol to olefins unit officially put into operation before the end of the expected strong, will bring 1.8 million tons / year of methanol consumption. Despite the recent methanol will remain depressed state, but in the long run methanol demand still exists a certain amount of room for growth.
