The polysilicon supply surplus in the short term will continue
Time：2012-11-07 11:03:10 Hits：2182
Polysilicon and wafer supply chain quarterly report for the third quarter of 2012, NPD Solarbuzz leading polysilicon manufacturer is already operating at a loss, expected the global polysilicon total production capacity will continue in 2012 and 2013, respectively, an increase of 22% and 18%. 2012 PV is expected to decline by 52% than in 2011, with the average price of polysilicon plant utilization from 77% in 2011 down to 63%.
Silicon-based technology giant Dow Corning recently published financial results, the first three quarters of the company achieved sales revenue of $ 4.64 billion, down 5% year-on-year. Net profit of $ 288 million, down 47% year-on-year. Hemlock, of Dow Corning's joint venture with China's GCL, Wacker Chemie, Germany tied for the international polysilicon giants.
The report pointed out that, the polysilicon product prices by industry oversupply pressure remains in the doldrums. In addition, the European market continues to fluctuations in the economy led to a marked decline in Dow Corning's sales in the region. Dow Corning executive vice president and chief financial officer Shina De said: "Since 2012, the performance of the company under pressure from the impact of organic silicon and polysilicon market oversupply and high-priced raw material costs, and the impact of these factors is expected to continue until 2013. '
And the the polysilicon manufacturers of domestic started only the GCL, Asia silicon REpower Yongxiang, Tebian, Daquan this several, basically discontinued, went bankrupt. Market center analysis, the industry remains in the doldrums, some manufacturers in the digestion of inventory; Although there is no inventory drag some manufacturers, the because exercise alone reduce downstream manufacturers, the shipment is still difficult.
Charles Annis, vice president of NPD Solarbuzz noted: "polysilicon industry does not need more capacity, but some two to three years ago, began the construction of a new factory hard not to continue to do investment planning. Addition, some manufacturers increase productivity through economies of scale reduce costs, improve manufacturing techniques, such as cold hydrogenated to reduce power consumption and expand the scale. "
2012 polysilicon total production capacity will exceed 385,000 tons, of which 70% belongs to a small number of first-tier suppliers. Forecast based on The NPD Solarbuzz on end-market demand in the next few years may be situations, these first-tier supplier to meet all the demand for polysilicon.
Unless the demand far exceeds the projected demand of the terminal market, many families will exit the market in the next 18 months, 57 in the second and third tier polysilicon manufacturers. In fact, even some inexperienced first-line manufacturers may not be able to in the next few years to survive.
Survived vendor capacity utilization, according to the needs of end-market arrangements to ensure that the sales price is higher than the cash cost polysilicon average price is expected to be stable at 2013 level of $ 21 per kilogram, up and down.
Annis added: "If the Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on the import of polysilicon, the price may increase, but to do so merely in favor of the part of the Chinese domestic polysilicon manufacturers, foreign manufacturers and a number of Chinese silicon, battery In addition, it does not solve the polysilicon oversupply, but may be due to higher prices and limit the growth in end markets and component manufacturers dealt a serious blow. "
In addition to import tariffs, polysilicon prices will be the next few years, an adequate supply of first-tier suppliers and end-market demand total suppression. However, the first-tier polysilicon manufacturers continue to prepare for the photovoltaic business for the long-term, low-cost structure, economies of scale and increasing productivity is expected to produce benefits with the growth of shipments.
